The new prototype ship "AIDAprima" (number 11) is currently under construction at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries located in Nagasaki, Japan. The design of the pioneering Prima, which is set to be launched in October 2015, is a completely new innovation for the cruise industry and the largest cruise ship ever to be built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
Although AIDA Cruises has been so successful in the past 10 decades, at the end of the day their source market base is only German speaking and therefore in many respects dependent upon the German economy and to a lesser extent the Austrian and Swiss. The Eurozone is now under greater pressure (especially the euro) and if things go from concerning to worse in Europe, ultimately the German economy will be affected. At this point with such a large fleet, AIDA Cruises may be vulnerable, regardless of how well organized or how profitable they are on a per per passenger basis.
The other notable factor, which may potentially throw fuel onto the fire down the line, is the fact that TUI Cruises are also expanding their fleet in parallel and in fact to a greater extent proportionally. This of course adds to the overall rising number of dedicated cruise ships within the relatively niche area of German speaking only cruises.
TUI Cruises, with their Mein Schiff named concept and Premium All Inclusive product are rising in popularity, although at present, there is space for 2 major Cruise Lines within the German market as the economy is holding. However, by 2018 TUI Cruises aim to operate a fleet of 8 ships and factoring in the current number of AIDA ships, even with the current German economy level, there will be a notable strain on cruise sales.
Then of course there is Hapag Lloyd, FTI Cruises, Phoenix Reisen and Passat Kreuzfahrten (MV Delphin, all of which are German dedicated.
Finally, one needs to add into the equation the impact of MSC Cruises and AIDA's own sister company Costa Cruises, both of which are essentially Pan European. Both Cruise Lines strongly target German passengers, especially off-season in the Mediterranean.
In summary, no-one doubts the quality and effectiveness of the AIDA Cruises product. However, due to its aggressive expansion plan and competitor activity, the German economy will most certainly be the main deciding factor as to whether AIDA Cruises can perform financially with the same margins as they have done in the last 10 years.
